Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 161.505891 194.450680 234.845753 288.862358 360.522930 4.542984e+02 5.897417e+02
2025-04-13 119.195442 155.703945 205.850423 282.367786 401.254138 5.887230e+02 9.299698e+02
2025-04-20 103.010339 143.249944 203.699645 306.679235 490.889620 8.387945e+02 1.651719e+03
2025-04-27 91.491313 133.536847 201.335602 327.868899 584.013875 1.158024e+03 2.907614e+03
2025-05-04 82.278688 124.844237 197.574707 344.256120 675.922261 1.552132e+03 5.118607e+03
2025-05-11 74.313597 116.365344 191.730249 354.094529 759.240064 2.011733e+03 9.001672e+03
2025-05-18 67.194101 107.942408 183.896564 356.924822 827.814262 2.515456e+03 1.578502e+04
2025-05-25 60.519008 99.186050 173.537067 350.746742 869.402680 2.989749e+03 2.676827e+04
2025-06-01 54.656956 91.063156 162.892584 340.747993 895.250650 3.453092e+03 4.544555e+04
2025-06-08 49.667664 83.925969 153.038924 329.999314 914.059689 3.935190e+03 8.004421e+04
2025-06-15 48.605162 84.228758 159.044216 362.822121 1112.816053 6.025282e+03 4.255827e+05
2025-06-22 45.548677 80.133119 154.553934 365.157479 1196.512550 7.621641e+03 2.259088e+06
2025-06-29 43.349428 77.680034 153.795441 379.762722 1356.592406 1.089248e+04 2.287374e+09
2025-07-06 40.205138 72.887767 146.741239 372.905067 1411.896396 1.343930e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 39.471431 73.148569 152.064630 408.797437 1742.987832 2.451286e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 38.468260 72.677889 155.467084 440.039416 2104.465018 4.629013e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 37.210714 71.469411 156.713649 464.306166 2471.631073 8.987341e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 35.701967 69.499542 155.542151 478.935691 2802.268537 1.749225e+05 NaN
2025-08-10 33.997671 66.882312 152.124666 483.153908 3059.403298 3.317945e+05 NaN
2025-08-17 32.063667 63.526563 146.085752 473.957345 3173.814558 5.507637e+05 NaN
2025-08-24 30.151330 60.055295 139.246224 459.118126 3210.611281 8.536956e+05 NaN
2025-08-31 28.382120 56.785085 132.587158 443.229340 3218.475780 1.316259e+06 NaN
2025-09-07 28.344114 57.763036 138.840725 491.953472 4218.118197 5.553557e+07 NaN